The fate of Donald Trump’s presidency could be decided as soon as today, depending on how the rest of the count in Pennsylvania goes.
Elsewhere, results are taking longer in Nevada and Arizona, but if Joe Biden hangs on to his lead in both of those states, that would also put him over the top.
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s home state of Pennsylvania could decide the 2020 election later Thursday, with the Democratic nominee chipping away at President Donald Trump’s lead as ballots were counted overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
There are still other states in play, but if Biden secures the Keystone State’s 20 electoral votes, he will clear the required 270 electoral votes needed to win.
By Insider’s count with our partners at Decision Desk HQ, a Biden win in Pennsylvania would put him at 273 electoral votes, meaning he could lose Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina and still come out on top.
Here’s what we can expect through the rest of the day on Thursday:
DDHQ has not called Pennsylvania yet, but if Biden overtakes Trump, you can probably expect major media outlets to call both the state and the race for the former VP in fairly short order.
Because of the location and nature of the remaining votes in Pennsylvania — they’re mainly coming from the Philadelphia area and from mail-in ballots, both places where Biden has overperformed — it would be extremely difficult for Trump to regain the lead just based on the order of the count; Trump’s best precincts are already in.
Nevada should have an update on its results around noon ET.
Arizona is also taking a while, and Trump is still able to come out ahead there. However, he faces a steep deficit and would need to reliably outperform Biden in the remaining ballots to claw back.
If Arizona and Nevada hold for Biden, that would put him right at 270 electoral votes and give him the presidency even if the other uncalled states don’t break for him.
In Georgia, which could very well complete its count soon, Biden has bit by bit gained on Trump in the last batches of ballots counted, and a win there would put him at 269 electoral votes, according to DDHQ’s tally so far.
Fulton County is set to release the results of another 5,000 votes at 11 a.m.
If the margin is less than 0.5 points in Georgia, either campaign can request a recount.
North Carolina is still too close to call. Of the remaining states, it’s looking like Trump’s best chance to pick up. We won’t have new results until November 12.
Even if Trump sweeps Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, Biden would still win with 270 electoral votes if he hangs on to his leads in Nevada and Arizona.
The earliest possible call for Biden to win the race appears to be the scenario where he overtakes Trump in Pennsylvania at some point on Thursday, since it’s unlikely that Trump would be able to get a surge from Philadelphia later on — that or a call in Biden’s favor in Georgia plus a call in Nevada, though that’s a little more complicated and contingent on him making up the deficit in Georgia.
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