Biden’s and Trump’s most likely remaining paths to victory

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President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden both said early Wednesday they believe they won the necessary Electoral College votes to claim the presidency. Time will tell, but neither candidate is yet projected to have won 270+ electoral votes — and both have plausible paths to victory.

As of Wednesday morning, the states that have not been assigned to either candidate are Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Trump is leading in Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, and Pennsylvania — though Michigan and Pennsylvania still have a large number of votes left to count. Biden is currently leading in Nevada and Wisconsin. Biden flipped Arizona, according to Associated Press and Fox News projections.

For Trump to win, his best shots are:

  • Winning Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), and Nevada (6), while losing Wisconsin (10) and Michigan (16). This would give Trump 274 electoral votes.

  • Winning Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), and Michigan (16), while losing Nevada (6) and Wisconsin (10). This would give Trump 284 electoral votes.

  • Winning North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), and Michigan (16), while losing Nevada (6) and Georgia (16). This would give Trump 278 electoral votes.

For Biden to win, his best paths are:

  • Winning Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), and Nevada (6), while losing Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), and North Carolina (15). This would give Biden 270 electoral votes.

  • Winning Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), and Georgia (16), while losing Pennsylvania (20) and North Carolina (15). This would give Biden 286 electoral votes.

  • Winning Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), and Pennsylvania (20), while losing Georgia, (16), Nevada (6), and North Carolina (15). This would give Biden 290 electoral votes.

Several of those states allow mail-in ballots postmarked by Tuesday to arrive for several days, and Pennsylvania is expected to be the last state to count the bulk of its votes. If it comes down to the Keystone State, we may not know who won until Friday or later.

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